The Radical Frontier
Beyond the culturally pre-approved segment of the Optimism-Pessimism Spectrum (OPS)
In this three-minute intro to the upcoming first episode of the M2D podcast, I highlighted several larger themes that emerged from this discussion of the exploitation-exploration trade-off. The themes include:
Radical optimism in the face of extreme uncertainty.
Humanity’s possible future as a multi-planetary species.
The Wallace Line as a metaphor for polarization and schismogenesis.
The problem of measurability and data availability.
The certainty trap and fear of doubt.
What happens in confrontations of Bayesian and dogmatic minds?
How are we to think about minds hijacked by viruses?
In this post, I compiled a few links and annotations related to these themes.
The full episode is scheduled for publication on M2D on 9/25.
Links and Annotations
1. Extreme Uncertainty
When Nothing Is Normal: Managing In Extreme Uncertainty (McKinsey)
In a serious crisis, uncertainty can reach extreme levels, and the normal way of working becomes overstrained. At such times traditional management operating models rarely prove adequate, and organizations with inadequate processes can quickly find themselves facing existential threats.
Extreme uncertainty on a global scale is rare; however, existential crises at the organizational or community level are more frequent and thus provide lessons concerning which operating models succeed and fail during periods of uncertainty.
2. Multi-Planetary Species
Making Humans a Multi-Planetary Species (Elon Musk)
By talking about the SpaceX Mars architecture, I want to make Mars seem possible—make it seem as though it is something that we can do in our lifetime. There really is a way that anyone could go if they wanted to.
Why go anywhere? I think there are really two fundamental paths. History is going to bifurcate along two directions. One path is we stay on Earth forever, and then there will be some eventual extinction event. I do not have an immediate doomsday prophecy, but eventually, history suggests, therewill be some doomsday event.
The alternative is to become a space-bearing [sic] civilization and a multi-planetary species, which I hope you would agree is the right way to go.
So how do we figure out how to take you to Mars and create a self-sustaining city—a city that is not merely an outpost but which can become a planet in its own right, allowing us to become a truly multi-planetary species.
3. The Wallace Line
The Mystery Of The Wallace Line Might Finally Have Been Solved (IFL Science)
"If you travel to Borneo, you won't see any marsupial mammals, but if you go to the neighboring island of Sulawesi, you will. Australia, on the other hand, lacks mammals typical of Asia, such as bears, tigers or rhinos," Dr Alex Skeels, from the Australian National University, said in a statement. Now scientists might finally have an answer, and it all comes down to plate tectonics…
Paleoenvironments shaped the exchange of terrestrial vertebrates across Wallace’s Line (Science)
Faunal turnover in Indo-Australia across Wallace’s Line is one of the most recognizable patterns in biogeography and has catalyzed debate about the role of evolutionary and geoclimatic history in biotic interchanges. Here, analysis of more than 20,000 vertebrate species with a model of geoclimate and biological diversification shows that broad precipitation tolerance and dispersal ability were key for exchange across the deep-time precipitation gradient spanning the region. Sundanian (Southeast Asian) lineages evolved in a climate similar to the humid “stepping stones” of Wallacea, facilitating colonization of the Sahulian (Australian) continental shelf. By contrast, Sahulian lineages predominantly evolved in drier conditions, hampering establishment in Sunda and shaping faunal distinctiveness. We demonstrate how the history of adaptation to past environmental conditions shapes asymmetrical colonization and global biogeographic structure.
4. Measurability
The Seductions of Clarity (C. Thi Nguyen)
The feeling of clarity can be dangerously seductive. It is the feeling associated with understanding things. And we use that feeling, in the rough-and-tumble of daily life, as a signal that we have investigated a matter sufficiently. The sense of clarity functions as a thought-terminating heuristic. In that case, our use of clarity creates significant cognitive vulnerability, which hostile forces can try to exploit. If an epistemic manipulator can imbue a belief system with an exaggerated sense of clarity, then they can induce us to terminate our inquiries too early — before we spot the flaws in the system. How might the sense of clarity be faked? Let’s first consider the object of imitation: genuine understanding. Genuine understanding grants cognitive facility. When we understand something, we categorize its aspects more easily; we see more connections between its disparate elements; we can generate new explanations; and we can communicate our understanding. In order to encourage us to accept a system of thought, then, an epistemic manipulator will want the system to provide its users with an exaggerated sensation of cognitive facility. The system should provide its users with the feeling that they can easily and powerfully create categorizations, generate explanations, and communicate their understanding. And manipulators have a significant advantage in imbuing their systems with a pleasurable sense of clarity, since they are freed from the burdens of accuracy and reliability. I offer two case studies of seductively clear systems: conspiracy theories; and the standardized, quantified value systems of bureaucracies.
5. The Certainty Trap
The Certainty Trap (Ilana Redstone)
Recognizing the phenomena I’ve introduced here—the Certainty Trap, the Settled Question Fallacy, the Fallacy of Known Intent, and the Fallacy of Equal Knowledge—can have significant implications. That recognition lets us label behavior and hold others and ourselves accountable for its consequences. For instance, you might imagine saying to someone (or to yourself), “This backlash is the result of the Settled Question Fallacy,” and explaining why, or telling someone that “You don’t get to complain about the culture war without acknowledging your role in it, via perpetuating these fallacies.” Or, “By continuing in this vein, knowing that you’re committing these fallacies and not changing your behavior, you are yourself fueling polarization.”
6. How Dogma Pollutes Discourse
7. Minds Hijacked by Viruses
Breaking the Spell (Daniel Dennett)
You watch an ant in a meadow, laboriously climbing up a blade of grass, higher and higher until it falls, then climbs again, and again, like Sisyphus rolling his rock, always striving to reach the top. Why is the ant doing this? What benefit is it seeking for itself in this strenuous and unlikely activity? Wrong question, as it turns out. No biological benefit accrues to the ant. It is not trying to get a better view of the territory or seeking food or showing off to a potential mate, for instance. Its brain has been commandeered by a tiny parasite, a lancet fluke (Dicrocelium dendriticum), that needs to get itself into the stomach of a sheep or a cow in order to complete its reproductive cycle. This little brain worm is driving the ant into position to benefit its progeny, and not the ant’s. This is not an isolated phenomenon. Similarly, manipulative parasites infect fish and mice, among other species. These hitchhikers cause their hosts to behave in unlikely, even suicidal ways. All for the benefit of the guest, not the host.
Does anything like this ever happened with human beings?